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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
55%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 18 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 18 games
94%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
661 picks · 455 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
660 picks · 696 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
578 picks · 1125 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1217 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1039 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
477 picks · 445 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
463 picks · 719 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
437 picks · 907 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:24
LGD Gaming 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:03:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekershiro
50% · 178 games48% · 231 game
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 247 games57% · 135 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Doom
Doomniu
50% · 347 games44% · 251 game
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
56% · 308 games47% · 277 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Pugna
Pugnay`
54% · 149 games47% · 335 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Game 2prediction correct34:16
LGD Gaming 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectreshiro
48% · 62 games50% · 153 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Enigma
Enigmaniu
52% · 181 game44% · 394 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
54% · 270 games53% · 143 games
SlarkATF
Slark
Silencer
Silencery`
51% · 247 games44% · 94 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Tiny
TinypLAnet
50% · 506 games54% · 482 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 56%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2