The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 59 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 24 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
662 picks · 453 bans
Techies
657 picks · 694 bans
Doom
578 picks · 1124 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1215 bans
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1038 bans
Disruptor
478 picks · 447 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
437 picks · 907 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
Team Spirit 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Execration in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterCollapse
AlchemistPalos
SlarkYatoro
VisageTino-
Storm SpiritLarl
Ember SpiritBob
TechiesMiposhka
Skywrath MageShanks
PugnaMira
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Team Spirit 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYatoro
AbaddonPalos
Ember SpiritLarl
Storm SpiritBob
Dark SeerCollapse
VisageTino-
MiranaMira
Spirit BreakerShanks
SilencerMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2