The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 33 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
674 picks · 458 bans
Techies
653 picks · 689 bans
Doom
581 picks · 1124 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1226 bans
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1048 bans
Disruptor
488 picks · 459 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 726 bans
Pangolier
440 picks · 913 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:7
Shopify Rebellion 77%Invictus Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:57.
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Shopify Rebellion 77%Invictus Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 77%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2