The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 24 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
674 picks · 459 bans
Techies
651 picks · 689 bans
Doom
584 picks · 1122 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1226 bans
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1047 bans
Disruptor
489 picks · 461 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 726 bans
Pangolier
441 picks · 912 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Team Aster 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMonet
MuertaPalos
Ember SpiritSumaiL
BroodmotherTino-
Legion CommanderXxs
Dragon KnightBob
BatriderBoBoKa
TechiesShanks
PugnaFantasy
Game 2prediction correct20:10
Team Aster 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterXxs
Phantom LancerPalos
MorphlingSumaiL
Queen of PainBob
SlarkMonet
TidehunterTino-
RubickFantasy
Dark WillowShanks
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2