?
arrow_backBack to match
The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 31 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 27 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 22 games
73%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
674 picks · 458 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
651 picks · 689 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
583 picks · 1121 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1226 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
488 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 725 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
440 picks · 912 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Tundra Esports 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
46% · 104 games55% · 138 games
MedusamiCKe
Medusa
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkiter
48% · 142 games56% · 164 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Doom
Doom33
46% · 294 games54% · 213 games
Primal Beastzai
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressAui_2000
48% · 261 game49% · 71 game
IoBoxi
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
43% · 104 games54% · 319 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Game 2prediction missed35:5
Tundra Esports 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
49% · 129 games38% · 64 games
Phantom LancermiCKe
Phantom Lancer
Pangolier
PangolierNine
52% · 264 games45% · 233 games
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Medusa
Medusa33
57% · 106 games49% · 190 games
Marszai
Mars
Tiny
TinySneyking
52% · 331 game49% · 319 games
DisruptorBoxi
Disruptor
Pugna
PugnaAui_2000
54% · 121 game54% · 145 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2