The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 16 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Evil Geniuses
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
Snapfire
Wisper · 30 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 28 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
672 picks · 456 bans
Techies
650 picks · 686 bans
Doom
580 picks · 1121 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1045 bans
Disruptor
488 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 721 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:25
Bleed Esports 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
LycanWisper
Doomiceiceice
MorphlingPakazs
RubickDJ
EnigmaMatthew
Shadow DemonDuBu
PuckChris Luck
55% · 304 games
ClockwerkPanda
Game 2prediction correct43:23
Bleed Esports 53%Evil Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
Templar AssassinChris Luck
Broodmothericeiceice
RazorPakazs
PhoenixDJ
PangolierWisper
ClockwerkDuBu
Keeper of the LightMatthew
47% · 118 games
Spirit BreakerPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2