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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 29 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 27 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 17 games
76%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
73%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 30 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MieRo · 24 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
671 picks · 455 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
650 picks · 684 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
579 picks · 1121 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1224 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1044 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
488 picks · 460 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 721 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
438 picks · 909 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
LGD Gaming 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
47% · 135 games50% · 229 games
Timbersawkiyotaka
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekershiro
48% · 155 games50% · 133 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
56% · 154 games48% · 302 games
EnchantressAntares
Enchantress
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
57% · 232 games43% · 122 games
Legion CommanderMieRo
Legion Commander
Undying
Undyingy`
49% · 299 games51% · 189 games
Spirit BreakerSolo
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct30:16
LGD Gaming 59%9Pandas 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
44% · 110 games64% · 127 games
MedusaRAMZES666
Medusa
Doom
Doomniu
48% · 403 games51% · 210 games
Batriderkiyotaka
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
49% · 292 games44% · 153 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
53% · 183 games49% · 360 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Clinkz
ClinkzpLAnet
49% · 87 games48% · 225 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2