The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 13 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 33 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 32 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 30 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
671 picks · 455 bans
Techies
648 picks · 684 bans
Doom
579 picks · 1121 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1042 bans
Disruptor
488 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 720 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
nouns 23%Gaimin Gladiators 77%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:09:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYamSun
Juggernautdyrachyo
Spirit BreakerMoo
BroodmotherAce
PangolierGunnar
PudgeQuinn
PugnaLelis
BatriderSeleri
Shadow DemonHusky
TechiestOfu
Game 2prediction correct8:32
nouns 22%Gaimin Gladiators 78%
The model gave 78% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYamSun
PangolierQuinn
BrewmasterMoo
BroodmotherAce
WindrangerGunnar
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
PugnaLelis
TechiestOfu
Shadow DemonHusky
BatriderSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 92%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2