The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 31 game
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 22 games
Undyingoften banned
Sneyking · 22 games
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 24 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 19 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
669 picks · 455 bans
Techies
643 picks · 682 bans
Doom
575 picks · 1119 bans
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
486 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 906 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
Tundra Esports 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 53:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
TerrorbladePalos
Tidehunter33
DoomTino-
Dragon KnightNine
Storm SpiritBob
TechiesSneyking
PugnaShanks
SnapfireAui_2000
Game 2prediction correct22:13
Tundra Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
SvenPalos
Spirit BreakerNine
BeastmasterTino-
Dark Seer33
PangolierBob
SnapfireAui_2000
Skywrath MageShanks
TechiesSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2