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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 24 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
61%

South America Rejects

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 433 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 246 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 366 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
424 picks · 365 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 804 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 870 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
351 picks · 882 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% South America Rejects
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:29
1w Team 47%South America Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
58% · 64 games48% · 460 games
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
51% · 266 games55% · 481 game
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
47% · 399 games59% · 138 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
50% · 382 games41% · 180 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockRein
46% · 372 games48% · 224 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct14:51
1w Team 47%South America Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
49% · 55 games51% · 177 games
DoomWits
Doom
Puck
PuckSquad1x
50% · 321 game47% · 307 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
42% · 164 games51% · 131 game
ViperFrank
Viper
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
57% · 82 games56% · 293 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
50% · 389 games48% · 103 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 55%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2