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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 32 games
66%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
82%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 24 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
680 picks · 456 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
641 picks · 679 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
577 picks · 1119 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1047 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1242 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
500 picks · 477 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
467 picks · 716 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 918 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:30
Shopify Rebellion 66%Team Aster 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:03:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
58% · 104 games55% · 187 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
46% · 296 games48% · 260 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
52% · 19 games43% · 98 games
Legion CommanderXxs
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
51% · 282 games50% · 210 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingFly
50% · 248 games49% · 194 games
PugnaFantasy
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed5:27
Shopify Rebellion 67%Team Aster 33%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
52% · 310 games43% · 117 games
Drow RangerMonet
Drow Ranger
Zeus
ZeusAbed
49% · 124 games46% · 85 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
58% · 136 games55% · 135 games
VisageXxs
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
49% · 450 games48% · 516 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFly
51% · 140 games49% · 307 games
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 77%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2