The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 24 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 18 games
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
679 picks · 456 bans
Techies
640 picks · 678 bans
Doom
576 picks · 1118 bans
Ember Spirit
503 picks · 1046 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1241 bans
Disruptor
500 picks · 477 bans
Enchantress
467 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
440 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
Execration 42%Blacklist International 58%
The model gave 58% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 53:52.
Game 2prediction correct19:24
Execration 42%Blacklist International 58%
The model gave 58% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 57:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2