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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 27 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
48%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Immersion · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 19 games
68%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 11 games
64%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
534 picks · 433 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
474 picks · 247 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 367 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
424 picks · 367 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 802 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 870 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
352 picks · 884 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:35
Power Rangers 43%South America Rejects 57%
The model gave 57% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
48% · 127 games49% · 237 games
MuertaWits
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
46% · 152 games56% · 53 games
Death ProphetDarkMago
Death Prophet
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
52% · 271 game46% · 223 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Io
IoImmersion
50% · 35 games56% · 375 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskHduo
39% · 397 games64% · 94 games
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct24:56
Power Rangers 45%South America Rejects 55%
The model gave 55% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTA2000
44% · 269 games54% · 355 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
52% · 405 games53% · 242 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAlberkaaa
52% · 359 games47% · 399 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Chen
ChenHduo
50% · 233 games52% · 338 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskImmersion
46% · 536 games50% · 468 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 62%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2