The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
天命 · 8 games
Rubicksignature
天命 · 8 games
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 16 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
677 picks · 455 bans
Techies
640 picks · 675 bans
Doom
575 picks · 1117 bans
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1044 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1237 bans
Disruptor
499 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 712 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:23
Azure Ray 53%Bleed Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistlou
Broodmothericeiceice
PangolierSomnus
MorphlingJaCkky
Legion CommanderChalice
SnapfireDJ
Enchantressfy
MiranaDuBu
Undying天命
Game 2prediction missed11:35
Azure Ray 56%Bleed Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenlou
Doomiceiceice
Ember SpiritSomnus
LifestealerJaCkky
MarsChalice
EnigmaDJ
Enchantressfy
UndyingDuBu
Silencer天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 59%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2