The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 26 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
674 picks · 452 bans
Techies
633 picks · 670 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
Beastmaster
498 picks · 1233 bans
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 707 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
Team Liquid 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautmiCKe
LunaYatoro
Timbersawzai
Queen of PainLarl
Ember SpiritNisha
VisageCollapse
UndyingiNSaNiA
EnchantressMiposhka
Dark WillowBoxi
Monkey KingMira
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Team Liquid 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanzai
UrsaYatoro
MorphlingmiCKe
PangolierLarl
TimbersawNisha
VisageCollapse
WindrangerBoxi
DisruptorMiposhka
EnchantressiNSaNiA
LionMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2