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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 23 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 17 games
76%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
57%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 32 games
66%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
674 picks · 452 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
633 picks · 670 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
498 picks · 1233 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1039 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 707 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:44
Execration 45%Shopify Rebellion 55%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:00:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalos
50% · 90 games57% · 76 games
LycanArteezy
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
53% · 301 game50% · 232 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBob
47% · 179 games52% · 125 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesShanks
49% · 234 games46% · 170 games
LichFly
Lich
49% · 201 game
PugnaCr1t-
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed31:11
Execration 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Execration in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPalos
43% · 49 games54% · 102 games
BloodseekerArteezy
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
45% · 366 games50% · 157 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTino-
51% · 103 games56% · 93 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageShanks
48% · 204 games58% · 196 games
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
49% · 174 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2