The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 24 games
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
674 picks · 452 bans
Techies
633 picks · 670 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
Beastmaster
498 picks · 1233 bans
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 707 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
Team Aster 45%beastcoast 55%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:41.
Game 2prediction correct49:44
Team Aster 45%beastcoast 55%
The model gave 55% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:50.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 55%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2