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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DOGSENTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 4 games
25%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
50%

DOGSENT

Jakiro
Jakiro
Nagato · 3 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
islA · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Marci
Marci
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
536 picks · 436 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 247 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 368 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
425 picks · 368 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 802 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 874 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
352 picks · 889 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% MODUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% MODUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MODUS 74%DOGSENT 26%
The model gave 74% on MODUS — the game was taken by DOGSENT.
Game 2prediction correct
MODUS 74%DOGSENT 26%
The model gave 74% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 3prediction correct
MODUS 74%DOGSENT 26%
The model gave 74% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteMODUS · 74%
Series resultMODUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3