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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 27 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 24 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
74%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 33 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 28 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 24 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
688 picks · 470 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
636 picks · 667 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1124 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 482 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
513 picks · 1251 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
503 picks · 1058 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
470 picks · 710 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
446 picks · 932 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
BETBOOM TEAM 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
50% · 380 games50% · 121 game
AlchemistPakazs
Alchemist
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNightfall
49% · 177 games53% · 191 game
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterPure~
53% · 131 game47% · 244 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaSave-
51% · 161 game49% · 149 games
Spirit BreakerMatthew
Spirit Breaker
Lich
LichTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 127 games49% · 271 game
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:10
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Evil Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 22:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
46% · 135 games53% · 122 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
51% · 115 games52% · 139 games
Queen of PainChris Luck
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomPure~
44% · 236 games50% · 93 games
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Techies
TechiesSave-
51% · 262 games48% · 559 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 320 games53% · 155 games
LichPanda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 60%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2