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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
天命 · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 8 games
63%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 17 games
65%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
688 picks · 470 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
634 picks · 667 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1123 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 482 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
512 picks · 1250 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1057 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
470 picks · 708 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 931 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:40
Azure Ray 38%PSG Quest 62%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
54% · 156 games45% · 216 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Zeus
ZeusSomnus
48% · 81 game50% · 159 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChalice
52% · 319 games47% · 105 games
MarsATF
Mars
Lion
Lionfy
51% · 49 games47% · 99 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Undying
Undying天命
55% · 222 games51% · 248 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 2prediction correct23:31
Azure Ray 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautlou
54% · 88 games55% · 185 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSomnus
44% · 374 games58% · 198 games
SlarkATF
Slark
Broodmother
BroodmotherChalice
49% · 227 games53% · 394 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Undying
Undying天命
50% · 324 games48% · 229 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
47% · 71 game42% · 78 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 67%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2