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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 24 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 24 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 471 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
634 picks · 666 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1124 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 485 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
513 picks · 1250 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1057 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
471 picks · 707 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
446 picks · 932 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 32%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:33
Team Liquid 67%Team Aster 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkmiCKe
42% · 122 games57% · 251 game
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
44% · 366 games52% · 132 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Broodmother
Broodmotherzai
50% · 139 games49% · 234 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
53% · 326 games56% · 154 games
PugnaBoBoKa
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
44% · 171 game54% · 353 games
DisruptorFantasy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Team Liquid 69%Team Aster 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
53% · 78 games50% · 231 game
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
64% · 29 games54% · 149 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Invoker
InvokerNisha
49% · 68 games53% · 78 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
48% · 261 game43% · 111 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
49% · 239 games43% · 106 games
Spirit BreakerFantasy
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2