The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
687 picks · 471 bans
Techies
630 picks · 664 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1121 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
511 picks · 1248 bans
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1055 bans
Enchantress
471 picks · 702 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 931 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:21
Tundra Esports 59%Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:01.
Game 2prediction missed21:36
Tundra Esports 59%Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 48:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2