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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Save- · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 21 game
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%

nouns

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 20 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
685 picks · 471 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
630 picks · 662 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
572 picks · 1121 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
515 picks · 485 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
511 picks · 1248 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1053 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
471 picks · 700 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 929 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
BETBOOM TEAM 64%nouns 36%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomPure~
47% · 282 games53% · 103 games
Anti-MageYamSun
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
50% · 245 games52% · 239 games
Keeper of the LightGunnar
Keeper of the Light
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
47% · 102 games52% · 193 games
LycanMoo
Lycan
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 402 games50% · 571 game
SnapfireLelis
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickSave-
46% · 606 games57% · 531 game
DisruptorHusky
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:8
BETBOOM TEAM 63%nouns 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
53% · 300 games53% · 352 games
SnapfireGunnar
Snapfire
Axe
AxePure~
49% · 33 games55% · 82 games
Anti-MageYamSun
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangergpK~
47% · 73 games61% · 128 games
VisageMoo
Visage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
41% · 239 games46% · 36 games
LionLelis
Lion
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 428 games48% · 475 games
RubickHusky
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 75%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2