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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 28 games
71%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 26 games
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 21 game
62%

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 10 games
70%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
天命 · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
686 picks · 470 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
628 picks · 661 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 486 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1250 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
497 picks · 1051 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
470 picks · 701 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 928 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
9Pandas 56%Azure Ray 44%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
55% · 92 games47% · 75 games
Bristlebacklou
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
43% · 134 games50% · 227 games
TimbersawChalice
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
45% · 108 games53% · 107 games
Queen of PainSomnus
Queen of Pain
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
47% · 145 games52% · 230 games
Techiesfy
Techies
Undying
UndyingSolo
54% · 188 games55% · 28 games
Witch Doctor天命
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct35:15
9Pandas 56%Azure Ray 44%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
49% · 246 games55% · 113 games
Phantom Lancerlou
Phantom Lancer
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
43% · 92 games50% · 193 games
Nature's ProphetChalice
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderMieRo
53% · 309 games53% · 246 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAntares
48% · 142 games52% · 186 games
Skywrath Magefy
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressSolo
48% · 298 games47% · 349 games
Undying天命
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 62%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2