The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 55 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 41 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 32 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 32 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 28 games
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 16 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
686 picks · 469 bans
Techies
628 picks · 659 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1119 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 485 bans
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1248 bans
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1050 bans
Enchantress
468 picks · 701 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 927 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:22
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Bleed Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
MorphlingJaCkky
Ember SpiritQuinn
Broodmothericeiceice
UndyingAce
Crystal MaidenDJ
EnchantressSeleri
PhoenixDuBu
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Bleed Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracQuinn
MedusaJaCkky
BroodmotherAce
Snapfireiceiceice
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
EnchantressDuBu
Shadow DemontOfu
Primal BeastDJ
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2