The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
683 picks · 468 bans
Techies
626 picks · 655 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1117 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1245 bans
Ember Spirit
492 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 696 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Blacklist International 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:38.
Game 2prediction missed40:31
Blacklist International 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by beastcoast in 57:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 63%
Accuracy by game0 of 2