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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 22 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
52%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 30 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Abed · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
683 picks · 468 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
626 picks · 655 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1117 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 484 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1245 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
492 picks · 1047 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
466 picks · 696 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 922 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:11
Tundra Esports 58%Shopify Rebellion 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
54% · 171 game55% · 131 game
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
55% · 254 games47% · 85 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
48% · 152 games53% · 203 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiesSneyking
50% · 310 games46% · 587 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
44% · 501 game49% · 382 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:15
Tundra Esports 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNine
51% · 211 games52% · 16 games
TinkerAbed
Tinker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
53% · 122 games53% · 93 games
BloodseekerArteezy
Bloodseeker
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
48% · 107 games51% · 101 game
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
48% · 98 games44% · 147 games
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
Lion
LionSaksa
56% · 41 game50% · 222 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2