The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
683 picks · 468 bans
Techies
626 picks · 655 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1117 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1245 bans
Ember Spirit
492 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 696 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:18
Invictus Gaming 20%Team Spirit 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:16.
Game 2prediction correct9:22
Invictus Gaming 20%Team Spirit 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 16:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2