The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Rubick
Matthew · 32 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 10 games
Batridersignature
Moo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
Techies
623 picks · 653 bans
Doom
572 picks · 1120 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1252 bans
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1054 bans
Enchantress
468 picks · 694 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 926 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Evil Geniuses 63%nouns 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPakazs
Anti-MageYamSun
MarsWisper
WindrangerGunnar
Primal BeastChris Luck
VisageMoo
RubickMatthew
PugnaLelis
UndyingPanda
DisruptorHusky
Game 2prediction missed25:31
Evil Geniuses 62%nouns 38%
The model gave 62% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by nouns in 50:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritChris Luck
Anti-MageYamSun
MorphlingPakazs
Lone DruidGunnar
BeastmasterWisper
BroodmotherMoo
Spirit BreakerMatthew
RubickLelis
UndyingPanda
TechiesHusky
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 75%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2