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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 15 games
60%

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 16 games
38%
Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
623 picks · 653 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
572 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1252 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1054 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
468 picks · 694 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 926 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
LGD Gaming 69%Bleed Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
53% · 263 games47% · 182 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Lycan
Lycanniu
48% · 117 games48% · 229 games
Doomiceiceice
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNothingToSay
53% · 163 games48% · 316 games
BatriderDJ
Batrider
Techies
TechiespLAnet
53% · 295 games51% · 232 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
52% · 121 game
Game 2prediction correct28:11
LGD Gaming 68%Bleed Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
39% · 88 games52% · 72 games
Anti-MageJaCkky
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
47% · 90 games60% · 116 games
Visageiceiceice
Visage
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
52% · 146 games51% · 225 games
TechiesDuBu
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
43% · 51 game48% · 71 game
Dark WillowDJ
Dark Willow
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakery`
53% · 109 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 84%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2