The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 28 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Abed · 15 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
691 picks · 473 bans
Techies
621 picks · 650 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1118 bans
Disruptor
517 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1247 bans
Ember Spirit
490 picks · 1055 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 690 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 926 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 23:29.
Game 2prediction missed34:39
Shopify Rebellion 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2