The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 24 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 23 games
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
691 picks · 473 bans
Techies
621 picks · 650 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1118 bans
Disruptor
517 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1247 bans
Ember Spirit
490 picks · 1055 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 690 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 926 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:28
Invictus Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 53:51.
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Invictus Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2