The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 24 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Mirana
Mira · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
Techies
620 picks · 650 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1246 bans
Ember Spirit
490 picks · 1055 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 689 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 926 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:41
Tundra Esports 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
BloodseekerYatoro
Dark Seer33
Storm SpiritLarl
TimbersawNine
MarsCollapse
EnchantressSneyking
DisruptorMiposhka
LionSaksa
PugnaMira
Game 2prediction correct38:32
Tundra Esports 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNine
BeastmasterCollapse
Underlord33
RikiYatoro
SlarkSkiter
Storm SpiritLarl
TinySaksa
RubickMira
TechiesSneyking
PugnaMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2