The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
Techies
619 picks · 649 bans
Doom
571 picks · 1116 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1245 bans
Ember Spirit
489 picks · 1054 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 689 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 924 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength63% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:15
Blacklist International 20%Team Liquid 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:20.
Game 2prediction correct18:23
Blacklist International 20%Team Liquid 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2