The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
689 picks · 473 bans
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1052 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Tundra Esports 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:07.
Game 2prediction missed12:43
Tundra Esports 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 35:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2