?
arrow_backBack to match
The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 56 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 24 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Mirana
Mira · 21 game
57%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 23 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1052 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 681 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
Team Spirit 54%Team Aster 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
50% · 261 game55% · 146 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
48% · 224 games50% · 298 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLarl
40% · 64 games52% · 52 games
Anti-MageXxs
Anti-Mage
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
48% · 124 games50% · 110 games
PugnaFantasy
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
52% · 64 games53% · 131 game
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Team Spirit 56%Team Aster 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
49% · 331 game56% · 136 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
52% · 109 games48% · 157 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLarl
42% · 91 game47% · 277 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiesMira
52% · 317 games55% · 33 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
51% · 133 games49% · 378 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2