Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Eex-Monaspaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 8 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 476 bans
Techies
612 picks · 644 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1112 bans
Disruptor
520 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1234 bans
Ember Spirit
482 picks · 1052 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 681 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:13
Level UP 54%ex-Monaspa 46%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:03:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 54%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1