Myth Avenue Gaming vs Polaris Esports — prediction DPC2S3ЮВД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:1

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Polaris Esportswin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Rubick

RR · 15 games

47%

Tusksignature

Hishge · 15 games

67%

Miranasignature

RR · 11 games

73%

Pangoliersignature

xsilearn · 11 games

64%

Batrideroften banned

xsilearn · 10 games

50%

Magnusoften banned

zeal · 9 games

56%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Meracle · 9 games

56%

Leshracsignature

xsilearn · 8 games

63%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Bok · 16 games

56%

Rubick

Boomy · 15 games

33%

Dark Willowsignature

cml · 13 games

69%

Marcioften banned

Jing · 12 games

42%

Beastmasteroften banned

Enryu · 10 games

50%

Death Prophetsignature

Bok · 10 games

60%

Lichsignature

cml · 10 games

80%

Rikisignature

Jing · 10 games

90%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

688 picks · 477 bans

47%

Techies

611 picks · 641 bans

55%

Doom

568 picks · 1111 bans

53%

Disruptor

521 picks · 493 bans

52%

Beastmaster

516 picks · 1234 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

483 picks · 1050 bans

49%

Enchantress

459 picks · 679 bans

50%

Pangolier

450 picks · 922 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%

Hero pool strength52% Myth Avenue Gaming

Head-to-head1 – 2

Model total55% Polaris Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct16:40

Myth Avenue Gaming 48%Polaris Esports 52%

The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 50:06.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo