MoneyMakers vs Natus Vincere Junior — prediction DPC2S3ВЕВД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

MoneyMakerswin 1:0

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick

CeMaTheSlayeR · 17 games

53%

Clockwerk

CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games

53%

Beastmasteroften banned

Bb3px · 14 games

50%

Disruptor

Bignum · 14 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

Bb3px · 11 games

36%

Techiesoften banned

Bignum · 10 games

30%

Naga Sirenoften banned

Lukas · 9 games

44%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Lukas · 9 games

56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Techiesoften banned

Daze · 12 games

42%

Mirana

Riddys · 11 games

45%

Rubick

Daze · 11 games

55%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Ri4man · 10 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Daze · 9 games

44%

Magnussignature

pma · 9 games

67%

Tiny

Ri4man · 8 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

pma · 7 games

43%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

687 picks · 476 bans

47%

Techies

611 picks · 641 bans

55%

Doom

567 picks · 1110 bans

53%

Disruptor

521 picks · 493 bans

52%

Beastmaster

516 picks · 1233 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

482 picks · 1050 bans

50%

Enchantress

459 picks · 677 bans

50%

Pangolier

450 picks · 920 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)46% vs 45%

Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers

Head-to-head2 – 1

Model total55% Natus Vincere Junior

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed32:7

MoneyMakers 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%

The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 30:59.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo