Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Snapfire
Alexxo · 14 games
Tiny
Alexxo · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 11 games
Rubick
Heaven · 11 games
Vipersignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 9 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
RESPECT · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
686 picks · 477 bans
Techies
610 picks · 640 bans
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
517 picks · 1233 bans
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1048 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 678 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:36
Ancient Tribe 52%Into The Breach 48%
The model gave 52% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherBliNcc
Drow RangerNande
Void SpiritMo13ei
PuckSupream^
Morphlinglil pleb
EnigmaXibbe
Spirit BreakerLeBronDota
Bounty HunterPablo
Shadow DemonAlexxo
PugnaRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed20:37
Ancient Tribe 51%Into The Breach 49%
The model gave 51% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusalil pleb
JuggernautNande
BatriderMo13ei
Void SpiritSupream^
MarsBliNcc
Dark SeerXibbe
SnapfireAlexxo
TechiesPablo
UndyingLeBronDota
PugnaRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 52%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2