Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Rubick
ace12 · 10 games
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 5 games
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
686 picks · 478 bans
Techies
607 picks · 639 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
523 picks · 494 bans
Beastmaster
518 picks · 1232 bans
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Vision 24%IHC Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 36:25.
Game 2prediction correct6:33
Vision 24%IHC Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 34:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 76%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2