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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
cybercatswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Egor · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%

cybercats

Techies
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 17 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zenica · 10 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 475 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
600 picks · 638 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
527 picks · 496 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
519 picks · 1232 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
479 picks · 1042 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 677 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
MoneyMakers 48%cybercats 52%
The model gave 52% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 55:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEgor
54% · 96 games44% · 104 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
49% · 197 games45% · 89 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBb3px
52% · 84 games50% · 337 games
BeastmasterDkFogas
Beastmaster
Techies
TechiesBignum
43% · 181 game52% · 324 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
54% · 380 games57% · 84 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Game 2prediction correct11:17
MoneyMakers 48%cybercats 52%
The model gave 52% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
50% · 303 games51% · 77 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
45% · 207 games60% · 33 games
Necrophosyoung G
Necrophos
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBb3px
54% · 91 game52% · 114 games
LycanDkFogas
Lycan
Phoenix
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
43% · 128 games59% · 97 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Techies
TechiesBignum
44% · 185 games47% · 593 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 53%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2