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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
USH · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Skyward · 3 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%

GRIN esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Rein · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Rein · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Rein · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
598 picks · 638 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
570 picks · 1112 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
531 picks · 498 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
521 picks · 1235 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
478 picks · 1045 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 678 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
TiltedBoys 59%GRIN esports 41%
The model gave 59% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterUSH
54% · 9 games51% · 79 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Techies
TechiesSkyward
46% · 70 games
Game 2prediction correct49:33
TiltedBoys 60%GRIN esports 40%
The model gave 60% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 54:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawUSH
62% · 73 games41% · 142 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesSkyward
55% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 61%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2