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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus Titansloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
goonswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nexus Titans

No games played over 6 months.

goons

Rubick
Rubick
Giant · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Giant · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
598 picks · 638 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
570 picks · 1112 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
533 picks · 498 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
521 picks · 1237 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
478 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 678 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nexus Titans 31%goons 69%
The model gave 69% on goons — the game was taken by Nexus Titans.
Game 2prediction correct
Nexus Titans 31%goons 69%
The model gave 69% on goons — the game was taken by goons.
Game 3prediction correct
Nexus Titans 31%goons 69%
The model gave 69% on goons — the game was taken by goons.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 69%
Series resultgoons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3