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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
StoRmloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
53%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Malady · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 9 games
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
597 picks · 638 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
570 picks · 1112 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
534 picks · 498 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
521 picks · 1235 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1048 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 678 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:24
Natus Vincere 67%StoRm 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShigetsu
64% · 119 games51% · 325 games
Morphlingkrylat
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
50% · 301 game59% · 40 games
Necrophosnicky`cool
Necrophos
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
56% · 81 game48% · 262 games
EnigmaDominic
Enigma
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
42% · 472 games48% · 183 games
Spirit BreakerOneJey
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
48% · 264 games42% · 427 games
UndyingSoNNeikO
Undying
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Natus Vincere 64%StoRm 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
36% · 31 game56% · 129 games
Bloodseekerkrylat
Bloodseeker
Axe
AxeMalik
38% · 45 games54% · 83 games
Queen of Painnicky`cool
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
45% · 202 games56% · 108 games
BroodmotherDominic
Broodmother
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
44% · 183 games56% · 194 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Undying
UndyingMalady
47% · 296 games60% · 243 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2