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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
74%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 18 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 17 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Speeed · 17 games
41%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
44%
Largo
Largooften banned
Fayde · 15 games
47%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
BOOM · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 17 games
35%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 370 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 221 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 654 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 348 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
322 picks · 341 bans
60%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 236 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 443 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 333 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 24%
Hero pool strength53% GamerLegion
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:21
GamerLegion 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaGhost
54% · 33 games52% · 152 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Slark
SlarkRCY
62% · 54 games60% · 51 game
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 286 games57% · 236 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSpeeed
41% · 133 games48% · 111 games
LargoOneJey
Largo
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
40% · 174 games48% · 130 games
BaneTobi
Bane
Game 2prediction missed37:7
GamerLegion 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 24:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
51% · 146 games51% · 134 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
52% · 119 games59% · 121 game
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
52% · 167 games43% · 47 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
30% · 83 games59% · 149 games
LionOneJey
Lion
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSpeeed
44% · 10 games55% · 74 games
Winter WyvernTobi
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2