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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Disillusionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Rubick
Rubicksignature
sheep · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 2 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 2 games
50%

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 15 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Eren · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Eren · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
699 picks · 479 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
593 picks · 636 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
570 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
539 picks · 500 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
527 picks · 1233 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 1050 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
465 picks · 680 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Supernova
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Supernova 53%Team Disillusion 47%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsheep
47% · 13 games53% · 13 games
EnchantressEren
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Supernova 55%Team Disillusion 45%
The model gave 55% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsheep
48% · 48 games52% · 48 games
TechiesEren
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 57%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2