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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 6 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
USH · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Skyward · 3 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%

goons

Rubick
Rubick
Giant · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 4 games
25%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
700 picks · 480 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
591 picks · 636 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 500 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
529 picks · 1232 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 1050 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
465 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% goons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
TiltedBoys 50%goons 50%
The model gave 50% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomUSH
50% · 145 games53% · 137 games
MorphlingBoris
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderSkyward
49% · 183 games52% · 23 games
AxeLil_Nick
Axe
48% · 168 games
TechiesGiant
Techies
Game 2prediction correct15:28
TiltedBoys 49%goons 51%
The model gave 51% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerUSH
37% · 148 games62% · 91 game
MedusaBoris
Medusa
Doom
DoomSkyward
48% · 170 games54% · 98 games
BatriderLil_Nick
Batrider
57% · 129 games
TechiesGiant
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 51%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2