Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nexus Titansloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Nexus Titans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 481 bans
Techies
591 picks · 635 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
542 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
529 picks · 1231 bans
Ember Spirit
476 picks · 1049 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 678 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Nexus Titans
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:18
Ravens 67%Nexus Titans 33%
The model gave 67% on Ravens — the game was taken by Nexus Titans in 37:55.
Game 2prediction missed18:44
Ravens 67%Nexus Titans 33%
The model gave 67% on Ravens — the game was taken by Nexus Titans in 38:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 67%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2