Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionEex-Monaspawin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Rubick
RESPECT · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
701 picks · 481 bans
Techies
588 picks · 635 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1108 bans
Disruptor
543 picks · 503 bans
Beastmaster
532 picks · 1228 bans
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1048 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 920 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% ex-Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ex-Monaspa 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by ex-Monaspa.
Game 2prediction correct
ex-Monaspa 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by ex-Monaspa.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 60%
Series resultex-Monaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2